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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."