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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.